No rescue in sight - helplessness and explosive mood dominate the election campaign
Cologne, January 30, 2025 - The mood of many voters ahead of the upcoming general election is characterized by strong feelings of loss, worry and disappointment with politics. The consequences of a stuttering economy, mismanaged migration and crumbling infrastructure are increasingly penetrating everyday life and creating the feeling of being stuck in a backlog of problems with no way out. These are the key findings of the rheingold election study, which is regularly carried out before the Bundestag elections.
"The perceived hopelessness manifests itself on three levels," says Stephan Grünewald, head of the study. "Politically, there is a lack of convincing visions and neither the candidates nor the coalition options are convincing voters."
The retreat into private feel-good bubbles practiced in recent years no longer works as a calming strategy. Overall, Germany, once such a successful model country, is perceived as ailing. People feel shaken to the core and have little confidence that the situation will improve with a change of government.
Longing for a caring and strong crisis manager with an eye on Germany
This situation creates a political longing for an assertive but also caring crisis manager, a profile that none of the candidates can really fulfill for various reasons. "The fact that the quarrelling protagonists of the failed traffic light government are once again standing for election together is causing additional offense and anger," says Grünewald. Donald Trump's election in the USA is also shifting the German profile of choice in a conservative and sometimes more radical direction along the lines of "Germany First".
There is no sign of a spirit of optimism with a view to possible coalitions in this election. Rather, there is a feeling of hopelessness here too. After the sobering experience with the traffic light coalition, voters do not expect any convincing coalition options. Even the coalitions favored as the lesser of two evils in the process of elimination usually create a feeling of hopelessness.
Cracks in society deepening
The heated atmosphere is increasingly perceived as "explosive". The fuse in contact with friends or acquaintances is getting shorter and many have the feeling that they are sitting on a powder keg, both nationally and internationally. Overall, it can be observed that the social divide is leading to ever deeper rifts. In the in-depth interviews, one sometimes gets the impression that the voters interviewed live in completely different realities and perceive the world completely differently.
The more left-wing bourgeois camp fears the "downfall of the West" if the AfD comes to power. This camp conjures up normality, fights to maintain the status quo, sometimes idealizes the situation, fights for democracy and sees itself as a bastion of good. It hopes that the backlog of problems will disappear through democratic efforts.
Threatening standstill awakens secret longing for "blasting"
The more conservative or AfD-affiliated camp, on the other hand, has the feeling that Germany is already in the midst of decline. Stunned, they describe the ailing state of the country, bemoan the incompetence of those in power, dramatize the situation to some extent and feel homeless in their own country. This camp is angry and demanding, calling for a radical crackdown and a decisive turnaround back to its former strength.
At the same time, the sense of hopelessness in the deadlocked situation reinforces a latent longing to resolve the backlog of problems decisively or radically. In view of the huge problems, stagnation and simply "business as usual" seem increasingly threatening. The AfD caters to these feelings with the promise of being able to "blow up" the system.
What people want from politics
Future politicians are expected to demonstrate a unity of purpose despite the expected differences in content. Tired of party-driven tactics and power games, people are demanding pragmatic solutions. Swift and fact-oriented cooperation can inspire confidence after the election that the backlog of problems can be resolved. "Politicians urgently need to take action against the increasing division in our society," says Stephan Grünewald. "A first important step is to clearly name the increasingly obvious problems and point out concrete options for action."
Method and sample of the study
The depth-psychological election study is based on the exploration of 50 voters in the survey period January 13-23, 2025.
24 people were interviewed intensively in three two-hour group discussions, each with eight respondents face-to-face in Cologne. 26 people were interviewed intensively in two-hour qualitative-psychological video interviews throughout Germany (covering northern, central, eastern and southern Germany). All interviewees were between 20 and 65 years old. Gender: parity; good mix: urban/rural living. The party affinity of the respondents corresponds to the distribution of votes in the election polls in the first half of January.
The aim of the study is to understand the mood among voters and to determine their underlying views and often unconscious motivations, in addition to the new demoscopic data available every day. The study is not representative due to its qualitative sample, but it does represent the often unaddressed fears, desires and perception patterns of voters.
The results in detail:
1. voters have the feeling that Germany is stuck in a huge backlog of problems - and that they have to bear the brunt of it
In addition to the ongoing global crises that are often perceived as unchangeable - war, migration and climate change - national crises are increasingly affecting the everyday lives of voters and shaking people to the core. The consequences of migration in particular are overshadowing all other issues. The attacks of recent months are undermining the sense of security in the country.
Resentment towards refugees is also growing. "Father" state is accused of offering the "foreign children" more care (accommodation and money) than its own "children". High inflation is weakening purchasing power and fueling fears of loss. At the same time, the desolate infrastructure (broken roads and railways, failing schools and daycare centers, cumbersome bureaucracy, ...) makes everyday life more difficult for people.
Overall, Germany, once such a successful model country, is seen as ailing. The defense capability is not there and the economic engine is faltering. Many citizens across all parties are asking themselves disappointedly and sadly: "What has happened to our beautiful country?"
Responsibility for the backlog of problems and the decline is primarily attributed to politicians. While many of those surveyed emphasize that they are working hard and trying to get everything done, those in power ("those at the top") are blamed for just talking, getting caught up in arguments and not tackling the problems consistently. However, it is not the political elites who are seen as suffering from the problems that have built up, but the citizens.
In addition, with a view to inflation or pensions, there is always the feeling that their own efforts are not worthwhile. While older people worry that the fruits of their decades of work will be "gambled away", younger people fear that they will no longer be able to build something for themselves.
2. the retreat into the private snail shell hardly works anymore, as the problems increasingly diffuse into the private sphere.
In the face of the crises, people have split their world into a private world that is still reasonably safe and manageable and a threatening outside world. However, the retreat into a personal snail shell and self-referentiality practiced in recent years no longer works as a calming strategy. The domestic Biedermeier idyll can no longer be maintained because three problems in particular threaten the private sphere:
- The lack of internal security reinforces the existing feelings of powerlessness.
- Price increases and the lack of affordable housing make some citizens feel like displaced persons in their own country.
- The heated atmosphere in the country and in our own environment is increasingly being experienced as explosive. The fuse in contact with friends or acquaintances is getting shorter and many have the feeling that they are sitting on a powder keg in the face of the crises.
3. fear of loss forces bitter distribution battles
People currently have little confidence that a change of government will change the situation; there is currently no mood of optimism in the country. In recent years, many voters have settled into a kind of post-game period. They hoped to stave off the impending turnaround and stabilize the existing situation for a few more months or years.
Now they fear the end of the aftermath. The basic feeling of many voters is characterized by a strong sense of loss. "It's not going to get any better."
The stuttering economy and the budget debates of recent months have also made it clear to voters that there is not enough money available. Tight budgets are fueling fears of losses and leading to fierce battles over distribution. People often complain that the money is being spent on the wrong things - on Ukraine, on refugees, on the citizens' income.
The "cycle paths in Peru" mentioned in many conversations and allegedly co-financed by Germany are also cited as evidence that not enough is being done for the country's own citizens: "The state forgets its own citizens and wring them out."
4. desperate hope and anger as an expression of divided realities
The feeling of being stuck in a huge backlog of problems and having little hope of a real way out reinforces the divisive tendencies in society. In the in-depth interviews, you sometimes get the impression that the voters interviewed live in completely different realities and perceive the world completely differently. These different perceptions also lead to completely different strategies for resolving the backlog of problems.
The more left-wing, middle-class camp fears the downfall of the West if the AfD comes to power. This camp conjures up normality and fights to preserve the status quo - sometimes idealizing the situation. It struggles for democracy, sees itself as a bastion of goodness and hopes that its democratic commitment will ultimately make the backlog of problems disappear.
The other, more conservative or AfD-affiliated camp has the feeling that Germany is already in the midst of decline. Stunned, they describe the dilapidated state of the country, bemoan the incompetence of those in power, sometimes dramatize the situation and feel homeless in their own country.
This camp is angry and raging, demanding a radical crackdown and a decisive return to its former strength.
5. loss of trust and great disappointment, especially with regard to the traffic light leaders
The basic feeling of many voters that the government no longer has its own citizens in mind has been drastically reinforced by the traffic light system. In view of the huge mountains of problems and threats that voters have felt in recent years, there has been a great longing for a paternal and caring protective power and a unity of direction.
This longing has been bitterly disappointed by Chancellor Olaf Scholz, but also by Christian Lindner and Robert Habeck. Instead of a reliable "paternal" protective power, voters experienced a constant fraternal quarrel. Voters had the feeling that the Ampel leaders were mainly preoccupied with themselves and less concerned with the country and its people.
Voters felt ignored by the self-congratulatory bickering of those in power: "The country is deserted and we have been left alone."
This disappointment and offense resonates subliminally in almost every conversation and has had a lasting effect on the protagonists. Many voters are irritated and stunned that all three top politicians of the traffic light are running again: "It's audacious that they are all standing again."
6. the desired chancellor is the down-to-earth and assertive doer with an eye for German interests - but no candidate fulfills this desired profile
The longing for directional unity and caring strength that has not been fulfilled in the traffic lights is being transferred to the future chancellor. People want a down-to-earth crisis manager because they themselves are increasingly losing their footing, including in their attitudes. Something has gone completely off the rails. Courage is being demanded from politicians, but people themselves are terrified.
In addition to a down-to-earth attitude, the desired profile of voters therefore includes the ability to be assertive. Donald Trump's election also shifts the German wish profile in a conservative and sometimes more radical direction. As a "simple doer", the chancellor, like Trump, should also make the world a simpler place.
Innovative ideas should be paired with a new egoism, true to the motto "Germany First." The chancellor should have a feeling for the country, the people and the culture and ideally love and protect them.
Olaf Scholz - a projection screen for everything that goes wrong
The Chancellor himself serves many SPD voters as a projection screen for everything that is going wrong in politics. Above all, he is blamed for not having held the traffic light together with authority. This is mainly blamed on his lack of leadership, but also on his communication deficits, which make him appear rather unapproachable. His often hesitant and despondent appearances make him a symbol of stagnation. Only in the case of Taurus' restraint is this credited to him as prudence.
On the other hand, Lindner's biting rebuff, with which he sealed the end of the traffic light system, is seen as a vital sign of life. The memory lapses he is accused of with regard to the cum-ex affair are a subliminal expression of people's disappointment: "He has forgotten us." Voters see his strength in his level-headedness: "He won't drive Germany into the next war." However, he appears to be a man of small steps and the chancellor of the little people. He is not seen as capable of removing the huge mountains of problems and reconciling the country.
The SPD's election posters are surprising, however, as they re-center the image of the chancellor. His larger-than-life likeness in front of the German flag, which fills the entire background of the picture, makes him appear serious, powerful and statesmanlike. "It's a bit like the tributes of Panem". "He means business!" The flag and the reference to security are experienced as a commitment to Germany.
Boris Pistorius came closest to the desired profile of the down-to-earth, assertive crisis manager. He is always said to have a strong presence. He speaks plainly and addresses the problems. In alliance with the caring SPD, his candidacy could have developed clout. Many citizens, including those outside the SPD electorate, are hugely disappointed and frustrated that he was not chosen in favor of "Olaf-weiter-so-Scholz". The will to make a real new start with Pistorius, which was clearly articulated in the opinion polls, was not implemented from the point of view of many voters in favor of retaining personal power. This was experienced as a further insult and reinforced the loss of trust.

Friedrich Merz - "bigwig" between Blackrock and black box
Friedrich Merz is considered by voters to be the favorite for the chancellorship. His ambition for higher office is often attributed to his impressive height, which makes him seem like a "big shot". Most voters trust him to represent Germany abroad and to face other state leaders with confidence. On the other hand, he sometimes comes across as arrogant and aloof: "He is above the people and does not relate to them."
He is seen as conservative and only a vague promise of stability emanates from him in the crisis: "At least things won't get worse with him." Merz is believed to have the economic expertise typical of the CDU, but some voters are wondering whether Merz's Blackrock past means that he is more likely to have capital expertise, from which the "little people" do not necessarily benefit.
As voters know very little about Friedrich Merz, he is also a black box as a future chancellor. Many find it difficult to assess where he will actually head - especially as he is considered impulsive and it is not known exactly what ties he has to Germany.

Robert Habeck - "the heat pump incarnate"
Robert Habeck comes across as approachable and likeable, even to voters who would never vote for him. He meets people at eye level and appears to be "warm-hearted and full of integrity" compared to the other protagonists of the traffic lights. He is held least responsible for the constant bickering at the traffic lights. With his mediating manner and environmental awareness, he creates a good climate in two senses. He conveys warmth in human contact and was characterized as a "human heat pump".
However, his ability to engage in personal exchange and teamwork with Annalena Baerbock casts doubt on his personal assertiveness. Despite his success in overcoming the energy crisis, he does not have the aura of a strong and fatherly crisis manager. To voters, he appears more like a good uncle who explains the world to them - sometimes in a "pastor-like " manner: "He makes an effort to be understood."
However, with regard to the currently stumbling economy, many voters accuse him of being partly to blame, which makes him appear "incompetent". He is also blamed for the heating law, which has reinforced the Greens' reputation as a party of paternalism and prohibition.

Christian Lindner - the discarded carol singer
While many voters were still in love with Lindner during the 2021 general election, this time most of them are not leaving a single positive hair on Lindner's head. He is often described as a person who loves himself more than the country: "He poses with his latest iPhone and his Porsche." "He only has himself and his clientele in mind." He appears to be a star whose star has burned out: "The traffic light out was his last big appearance."
The almost demonstrative ignoring of Christian Lindner in interviews is an expression of disappointment that he has "surreptitiously abdicated responsibility". However, the disappointment with Christian Lindner began long before the end of the traffic light system. In the 2021 election, he represented the voters' inner child with his spirit of freedom and openness to technology. His core promise was that with him in government, an unrestricted and unrestrained life would continue to be possible.
As finance minister, however, he had to abandon this generosity in favor of thrift and cost control. Lindner suddenly appeared stingy and old-fashioned. He was unable to resolve the internal contradiction between his advocacy of free and unrestricted travel on German freeways and a rigid debt brake (from which the infrastructure also suffers).

Alice Weidel - the aristocratic executioner
Alice Weidel is the candidate who polarizes the most between experienced enthusiasm and total rejection. Her image oscillates between a chilly ice queen and a relentless executioner. Her "charisma" is described as prestigious and presentable: "She could come from the English aristocracy".
However, her aristocratic aura and doctorate also make her appear somewhat aloof and cool: "She keeps her cool and doesn't allow herself to be provoked." Warm-hearted, caring or even maternal qualities are not associated with her. She comes across more like a rigid and argumentative stepmother: "She doesn't talk down to anyone." Voters have the feeling that she does not shy away from controversy and judges the situation in the country harshly.
However, this also makes her seem very hot-tempered and combative. However, Weidel's perceived stepmotherliness also raises questions about the extent to which she can really be trusted and whether she really feels connected to Germany: "Other rules probably apply to her, she lives in Switzerland but is running for Germany."

Sahra Wagenknecht - the martyr fallen out of time
Sahra Wagenknecht looks like a figure that seems to have fallen out of time and space. She eludes the political spectrum, seems suspended, detached and difficult to grasp. She is often characterized as an angel of peace or a figure of light, which on the one hand lends her a certain radiance, but on the other hand also makes her appear distant and removed from the earth.
Her hairstyle and costume, which are always the same, radiate a certain reliability for the subjects, but this can also be experienced as Old Testament severity. Her clear language exudes a great power of seduction: "She comes across like a Pied Piper who says: I will lead you to a new land." Nevertheless, voters do not succumb to her seductive power, as her goals and solutions ultimately remain unclear.
In her detachment, she seems solitary and not really connected to her party or the people. The cult of personality surrounding Sarah Wagenknecht and her closeness to Russia is ultimately uncanny to many voters. In her lonely struggle, she comes across as a modern martyr who is doomed to fail after a brief period of radiance.

7. election campaign and election advertising are currently causing a great deal of confusion
The helplessness and hopelessness that voters are currently experiencing often escalates into great confusion during the election campaign and when dealing with election advertising. Many black-and-white pigeonholes and categorization patterns suddenly no longer fit. The CDU appears in its posters in AfD blue and also presents itself as a "sheep in wolf's clothing" with its pride appeals. At the same time, the AfD is using its modern-modern campaign to attract voters and appearing as a "wolf in sheep's clothing".
The SPD, in turn, is staging the chancellor, who is perceived as weak in leadership, as a national super-figure who looks sternly at his citizens like the head of the Central Committee. The Greens want to rearm, the FDP does not want to spend any money. The former shining light Christian Lindner appears as a dark figure in gloomy posters.
Implicit firewalls are being erected between the conservatives and the Greens, even though they are successfully forming coalitions in federal states. The effect on voters is almost like a conundrum; they no longer know which party they actually see or should vote for. This confusion is also reflected in the fact that almost every respondent across the party landscape used the term "flag in the wind".
8. feeling of hopelessness with a view to possible coalitions
In the 2021 election, voters still hoped that the major challenges of the future could be solved with a take-three logic. The Greens were supposed to set a moderate ecological course. The FDP was supposed to free people from excessive changes and sacrifices with its gesture of freedom and openness to technology, and the SPD was supposed to guarantee social security in times of change.
There is no sign of a spirit of optimism with regard to possible coalitions in this election. Instead, there is a feeling of hopelessness on three levels.
- Firstly, there is a lack of big ideas and visions as to how the backlog of problems can be resolved, as the bourgeois parties in particular are suggesting "business as usual", which voters no longer believe.
- Secondly, the candidates do not fulfill the desired profile of a caring and assertive crisis manager.
- And thirdly, after the sobering Ampeler experience, voters are not seeing any convincing coalition options.
Even the coalition favored by voters as the least of evils in the process of elimination usually creates a feeling of hopelessness.
GroKo - More standstill than stability
The grand coalition is expected by most voters. Although it promises a certain residual stability, it is also reminiscent of the standstill during the last grand coalitions under Angela Merkel.
CDU and Greens - the programmed incompatibility
This coalition is favored above all by Green voters, who point to successful coalitions in North Rhine-Westphalia and Baden-Württemberg. For many CDU voters, however, the Greens have become an object of hatred. Their reputation as a party of prohibition and paternalism reinforces voters' existing feelings of powerlessness.
CDU and AfD - firewall curbs often unspoken fascination with fear
The AfD stands for a radical crackdown, especially on the issue of migration. According to many CDU voters, it also addresses issues of concern and "asks the right questions". It also promises to liberate the sometimes stifled expression (for fear of saying the wrong thing).
Through demonstrative impudence along the lines of Donald Trump, it promises the end of shame and the beginning of unbroken pride in one's own country.
With its "Germany First" policy and its retrograde politics, it proclaims the return of the German Shire of the Federal Republic and the restoration of old role models and family values. It is often seen as the party with the greatest (albeit backward-looking) power for change.
This also awakens a secret fascination with fear among some CDU voters, which is often painstakingly kept in check by referring to their hostility towards Europe, their proximity to radical right-wing positions and politicians such as Björn Höcke.
The fear that the AfD will act as a wrecking ball and change the country with an uncertain outcome can be mitigated by the idea of a coalition with the AfD that sometimes arises among some CDU voters - despite the firewall clearly drawn by the CDU. In such a coalition, Friedrich Merz should keep the AfD on a leash and, if necessary, muzzle it.
Conversely, the AfD should give Merz a leg up and put him on the right track here and there: "The AfD should drain the swamp, but not lead the government." "The CDU is making sure that we don't end up with Hitler again." Such mind games, spelled out with quiet hope, show that the belief in the meaningfulness of the firewall among CDU supporters is becoming more porous and is already showing the first cracks.
9. the pleasure of tipping and the longing for the great liberating blow
The feeling of threefold hopelessness in an entangled and deadlocked situation reinforces a latent longing to resolve the backlog of problems decisively or radically. In view of the huge problems, stagnation and a mere "business as usual" seem increasingly threatening.
This is where the AfD scores points in the long term with the promise of demolition. Especially as the firewall means that unloved coalitions will quickly produce bickering and thick air again. While the firewall can lead to the suffocation of democracy on the one hand, it becomes a dam wall on the AfD side, which benefits from the voters' pent-up anger at stagnation, bickering and problem constancy and thus gains more and more strength.
10. the voters' wish for the future government: to clearly name problems and exemplify a problem-solving attitude with concrete calls for action for everyone
Future politicians are expected to demonstrate a unity of purpose despite the expected differences in content. Tired of party-driven tactics and power games, people are demanding pragmatic solutions. After the election, swift and fact-oriented cooperation can inspire confidence that the backlog of problems can be resolved.
The successful management of the energy crisis by preventing a blackout two years ago shows that a policy that clearly identifies problems and points out collective measures can activate voters' self-efficacy, strengthen social cohesion and address voters' untapped desires for active participation.
In future, the existing crises should not be played down, but the seriousness of the situation should be clearly stated and combined with concrete calls for action for everyone. It is also expected that the future government will exemplify unity and a productive problem-solving attitude. To this end, it should counteract social division by establishing meeting spaces that open up exchange and discussion between those with different views.
Press contact rheingold Institut:
Ismene Poulakos
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E-mail: poulakos@rheingold-online.de
About the rheingold Institute:
The rheingold Institute is one of the most renowned addresses for qualitative psychological impact research. With around 50 permanent employees and numerous freelance interviewers - mainly qualified psychologists - the institute specializes in in-depth psychological cultural, market and media research, but also uses quantitative and digital tools. Every year, around 5,000 women and men lie "on the couch" at rheingold. The market researchers analyze the unconscious psychological influencing factors and contexts of meaning that determine the actions of every person.