Mobility of the future

How do car manufacturers know what their customers will want to drive in ten years' time? Sebastian Buggert of the Cologne-based rheingold institute is an expert in depth-psychological market and trend research.

The interview with Sebastian Buggert appeared in stern.

Mr. Buggert, it takes years to develop a new car model. How do manufacturers know today what customers will want to drive in the future? A new development can cost more than a billion euros - and no company wants to waste that.

The famous look into the future. It is fundamentally difficult for people to imagine the future or even to provide information about what needs they will have in the future. In this respect, you can't simply ask customers what cars they want to drive in five to ten years. In our view, it's better to analyze customers' unconscious motives that underlie purchase decisions or brand preferences - by finding out what psychological function, what emotional benefit a car or a brand has for the respondent. In this way, we can then also identify changes and trends and make much more informed forecasts.

How do you find out specifically what the customer wants during the discussions?

Our one-on-one meetings last two hours and are conducted by certified psychologists. We ask them to describe the purchase decisions, the trade-offs, and also the car and mobility experiences in great detail and as close to real life as possible. How did the car come to be purchased, what is it like to drive it, when is driving fun, when less so? We also learn a lot about dissatisfaction with current products and offers. It's also interesting to see which innovations consumers pick up on and either buy or even just dabble with. By seeing the deeper reasons behind these developments, we reveal psychological trends that will have an impact on the future. 

Cars are becoming smartphones on wheels, they say. Is that what the customer wants?

Digitization is not just a technical trend, but also a psychological one. In our trend research, we find that the Internet's god-like promise of omnipotence - that is, being able to access everything anytime, anywhere - is also being transferred to other product areas. What I experience with my smartphone in terms of simplicity, immediate influence and personalization is also becoming the benchmark for media use, the service industry and increasingly for car manufacturers as well. Incidentally, it is interesting that the Internet stands for global networking - for a kind of community that we join, with which we feel safe and supported, from which we let ourselves be guided, largely unconsciously, as if by an everyday navigator. This desire for guidance contrasts with classic automobility. After all, it's all about being at the wheel and deciding on direction and speed yourself. From this point of view, the view of the car and mobility in general will also change.

Cars are "personality markers," it says on your homepage. What does that mean?

The car is basically a kind of tinny garment that you step into completely and with which you present yourself to the public in a certain way. But that also means that the car represents a strong commitment. And people today are finding that increasingly difficult. The online worlds function in a modular way, they are flexible and can be adapted to many life situations. From this perspective, car sharing makes sense not only financially, but also psychologically. Mobility will also become smart, and that is to be expected.